A neutral-observer research synthesis reverse-engineering a connected economic model — energy → hardware → compute → models → tokens → AI working capacity → digital work → outcomes → value → agency — from public statements by Jensen Huang, Sam Altman, and Mark Zuckerberg, combined with independently verified hardware specs, pricing, and benchmarks. Every substantive claim is tagged with one of five evidence classes (OBSERVED FACTATTRIBUTED STATEMENTDERIVED CALCULATIONSCENARIO ASSUMPTIONINTERPRETATION) so a reader can tell, at a glance, what is independently verified, what is someone's on-record claim, what is arithmetic, and what is an editable illustration.
It is not a vendor report, a political programme, or an investment recommendation. Six reader lenses — Individual, SME/owner-manager, Finance/infrastructure investor, Government/region/community, AI builder/operator, and Educator/researcher/journalist — are given equal weight and no priority ordering, by deliberate editorial decision.
Reading paths
Different readers can get a common factual base at different depths, without everyone being forced through the whole document first.
Start here
One page: what this is/is not, what it can/cannot establish, how to challenge it.
How to Use This Research →The authoritative map
The complete model, 45 sections, all evidence-class tagging, all caveats.
Whitepaper (PDF) → · Markdown →The entry point
A fast, self-contained summary for readers who want the shape of the argument.
Executive Brief →The audit & exploration layer
Every formula shown, every assumption an editable cell.
Excel Workbook → · Companion Workbooks →The conversation starter
A 26-slide deck with speaker notes, for presenting or sharing the argument.
Slide Deck →Before citing a figure
What this model's evidence can and cannot currently establish.
Known Limitations →What others are writing
Original, independent, and critical writeups derived from or challenging this research.
Perspectives & Writeups →Core documents
| Document | What it is |
|---|---|
| 01 — Whitepaper (PDF) | The full 45-section research paper |
| 02 — Source Register | Claim-by-claim fact-check ledger |
| 09 — Glossary | Every technical/economic term, plain-language |
| 10 — Source Register (formatted) | Publication-formatted version, by source |
| 11 — Assumption Register | Every editable scenario assumption, consolidated |
| 12 — Executive Brief | Standalone summary of the whole paper |
| 20 — Known Limitations | Consolidated live uncertainties |
Companion workbooks
| Workbook | Covers |
|---|---|
| 03 — Global Baseline | Home/Cooperative/Professional/Hyperscale cost curves, global USD baseline |
| 04 — AI Working-Capacity Conversion | Usage-intensity ladder, $/token → $/AI-working-hour |
| 05 — Token-Factory Scenarios | Cooperative-cost reconciliation, Bitcoin energy-monetization comparison |
| 06 — Investment-Thesis Notes | Educational, non-advice investment scenarios by scale tier |
| 07 — Humanoid Working-Capacity | Embodied working-capacity extension (robots) |
| 08 — Localized Scenario (EUR/Finland) | Worked non-USD localization template |
| 18 — Excel Data Model | Live-formula workbook, 10 sheets, all tiers |
| Canonical Cost Model (CSV) | Single source of truth for every tier's cost figures |
Presentation & short-form
| Asset | For |
|---|---|
| 19 — Slide Deck (outline) | 26 slides with speaker notes |
| 14 — General explainer | ~300-word social/short-form piece |
| 15 — Ownership piece | The ownership question (Part V) |
| 16 — Value piece | Why cheap tokens ≠ cheap value (Part IV) |
| Diagrams (11) (specs) | End-to-end chain, cost waterfall, ownership stack, scale spectrum, new-value bridge, and more |
Version, citation & licence
CITATION.cff LICENSE CHECKSUMS.sha256 CHANGELOG.md
Licensed under CC BY 4.0 for this paper's original prose, diagrams, and model structure — see LICENSE for the scope note on quoted third-party statements, trademarks, and external data, which remain under their own terms.
Suggested attribution: "Research synthesis and modelling by Valto Loikkanen, assisted by AI."
Running the checks yourself
This package includes a mechanical consistency checker that verifies the whitepaper, PDF, Excel workbook, and slide deck all agree with the canonical cost model — see README for setup instructions.